Weekly Candle …

Today the SPY ETF pushed below the 200 daily simple moving average of $276.28 and made a low of $273.91 … a close back above or around the 200 SMA will be a bit of a victory for the bulls but it would be best if we did not make another lower low today.

As I discussed in yesterday’s blog post, the weekly candle needs to close somewhere off of the lows when we close for the week tomorrow.  The 50% level of the current weekly range is $281.385 and the 38.2% level would be $279.62.  For me, a close at or above those levels gives me more confidence that there is not a lot more selling right now.  Things can change with a new Presidential tweet next week, but that kind of close for the week would be good.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Market Comment …

The market today inflicted a lot of pain to the long bulltards … many of them probably were taken out with margin calls late in the day.  Is the short-term selling over?  Let’s take a look at the market indicators.

McClellan Oscillator – Daily Chart

Ok … I like to keep track of the McClellan Oscillator to tell me when markets get at extremes.  Below -100 on the Oscillator generally marks an oversold market, and below -150 usually is seen only during wicked capitulation selling that is seen only occasionally.  The indicator ended today at -148.36 and is the second lowest reading group seen this year.  Only the early Jan/Feb carnage generated readings this low.

I mark on the above daily chart the four extreme readings, and then marked those same periods on the weekly SPY chart on the right.  You can see that generally, those were great times to step into the market to buy the dips.  Can we say that same thing here again?  Only time will tell, but let’s look closer at those four candles to see what additional information when can garner.

Remember, those price candles are weekly candles and therefore, the look of the current weekly candle will not be determined until the close on Friday.

Candle #1 … see how the candle bounced off of the low and closed closer to the middle of the weekly range?  That showed strength to close the week and as it turned out, price continued to bounce for about 5 more weeks.

Candle #2 … that weekly price candle ended right on the lows.  That shows selling right into the end of the week.  The next week saw a rather large range price action, but it was an inside candle that stuck to the bottom 50% of the bigger losing candle.  You can see that we actually made another lower low on the 2nd week that followed the bigger sell-off candle.  Then we had a bigger sustainable rally that benefited traders willing to wade back into stock positions.

Candle #3 … That weekly candle bounced off of the lows and finished the week around the mid-point of the candle’s range.  Again, that shows strength into Friday’s close.  The market bounced hard out of that low.

Lessons for Candle #4 … so what can we garner from the other extreme readings seen this year?  I would suggest that the next two trading days are important – if the market continues to see more selling the next two days, then I think we are still likely going to see some volatility for the next little bit.  Maybe we push to new lows right away, or maybe we get a half-assed bounce and then a new lower low with positive divergences in many momentum indicators.

Bottom-line will be to be patient and keep your trading time frame intra-day until we get more information about a low being made over the next 5-7 days.

Let’s look at the VIX to see if it will tell us anything …

S&P 500 VIX Index – Daily Chart #1

I had a trend-line alert set for the VIX index … that was a nice level to watch for a warning.

The 30-Day VIX / 90-Day VIX ratio is a great indicator to help traders find extremes in the short-term fear of the market.  We are well into the 1:1 ratio extreme zone here at 1.11x so we are getting near the end of the extreme fear in option premiums.

S&P 500 VIX Index – Weeky Chart

When you back out to a weekly time frame, you can see that we are at levels on the VIX that typically mark a level where support will typically be found.  Remember, these are weekly candles, so lots of daily anguish can be felt in the interim.

S&P 500 VIX Index – Daily Chart #2

I pushed the second daily chart above by pushing the illustrated days to early 2018 so that traders could see the wild daily swings that we can typically seen when the market makes these large outsized moves.

Bottom Line … Be safe, don’t be a hero, but don’t be paralyzed either.  Know what could happen and how oversold we are becoming.  Trade accordingly.

Cheers … Leaf_West

TSLA Update …

TSLA has been my favorite stock for trading during 2018 … I have made several posts about TSLA’s set-ups and I am looking once again at zones where resistance can be expected,  Here are the charts …

TSLA – Weekly Chart

The rising/broadening price pattern is still intact but the median line is likely to be formidable resistance here soon.

TSLA – Daily Chart

The Median Line resistance is around the $358 level.

TSLA – 195 Minute Chart

The 195-min chart is painting light blue candles warning me of an extreme move of price away from its slower moving averages.  Note that volume is tapering off as we get higher and higher on this expansion move.

Be on guard if you are long TSLA as we push into the $350 – $360 levels.

Cheers … Leaf_West

FOMC Meeting Begins Tomorrow … Looking for Precious Metals to Begin Moving

As mentioned in my update on precious metals dated June 6th (click here), silver’s chart looks like it could be interesting going forward here soon.  One of the technical analysts that I follow wrote a blog piece dated June 8th that actually discussed how silver has a history of frequently making important lows/highs into FOMC meetings (the next one beginning tomorrow) – click here to read his piece.

Saying all of this is my way of reminding traders to pay attention to silver, gold and to gold miners for the next week or so … we may be on the verge of starting an expansion phase in these sectors.  Here are some charts …

Silver Futures (SI) – Daily Chart

$17.00 is still the level that silver futures has to take out to show me that it is trying to move higher …

Gold Miner ETF (GDX) – Daily Chart

Price for the GDX miners broke the daily ATR resistance level back on April 11th … price to me has “confirmed” that break higher with the consolidation since that date.  Now all we need to see is the desire and willingness to break higher.

Gold Miner 3x Leveraged Bull ETF (NUGT) – Daily Chart

I would think that NUGT should at least get to the 61.8% level in the SLOT resistance zone … that would mean price is getting ready to make a move up to about $31.60 or about 24% higher than today’s closing price.

WPM – Daily Chart

I am long a good sized position in WPM, a Canadian royalty mining company, in my retirement accounts here in Canada.  They announced another asset purchase recently … this one in cobalt as WPM’s management continue to move away from being totally dependent in silver where they originally focused the Company’s attention.  This is probably just another sign that traders should be looking at silver after years of terrible performance/returns.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Blog Site News …

I have had some personal distractions since April 2017 that have kept me away from spending as much time trading and blogging.  Those distractions are becoming more maintained and I am ramping up my trading analysis.

Also happening lately is my son Paul’s stated desire to learn the trading business … this has given me further reason to give more effort to my blog site and its educational posts.  The first efforts will be to bring forward my educational PDFs that I had written for my prior blog sites – they may be a bit out of date, but I will eventually get to it to update them.  In the meantime, there is still some value-added to those pieces so i will put them up under the educational tab.

Click here to go to the educational tab ….

Cheers … Leaf_West


Bonds into Support as Stocks Push into Resistance …

My read of the current price structure for the market-leading stock sector (tech or the QQQ’s) match up pretty well with my read of the price structure for bonds … bonds are pushing into a logical support SLOT zone while the Q’s push into a prior high and a logical termination zone for the 2nd of 3-waves I am looking for from stocks.  Here are the charts …

US 30-Year Treasury Bond Future Contract (ZB) – 195 Minute Chart

I have been calling this move in bonds pretty well for the past couple of months … I think that we should see the long bond find support in the SLOT support zone – we are right at the important 61.8% that often acts as support/resistance during corrections.  The FOMC meets June 12th and 13th, and bond moves often happen/begin around those FOMC dates.  Maybe bonds bounce around here for about a week before beginning what I think will be either a Wave 2 or Wave C move to the next level of resistance.

NASDQ 100 ETF (QQQ) – 195 Minute Chart #1

Everybody is pretty hopped-up with the break by equities out of the big multi-month consolidation patterns they had been making.  When something is so obvious that “everyone” sees it I begin to worry about a massive failure/fake-out move … aside from that minor concern of mine, it appears to me that the Q’s are pushing right into an obvious level of resistance for a Wave 2 of a 3-wave price stucture.  Wave 2’s typically fail in resistance right at the 1.618x extension target … we are right there for the Q’s now.  To top off that obvious target is the fact that we are also pushing right into a prior pivot/all-time high – what are the odds that we blow right through that level and tack on another 5% or so without pausing??  I think it makes more sense to see a fake-out and consolidation/corrective price action which would set-up a more sustainable break to new highs.

NASDQ 100 ETF (QQQ) – 195 Minute Chart #2

So if my read is right, then the Q’s are making a push this week that could lead into an important pivot high followed by a pullback into SLOT support.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Bond Update …

As an update to my prior post on the bigger wave structure for bonds (click here), I think that we are likely inside the corrective wave move after the first leg higher out of the major area of support I identified in that earlier blog post … here are my current thoughts.

US 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures (ZB) – 195 Minute Chart

Based on the look of the move/candles, the move higher out of support for bonds was clearly impulsive and not corrective.  Therefore, I would expect at least another push higher by bonds after a period of consolidation/minor correction.  The next move higher is likely to be made from a bigger level of support so I would look for price to make it down somehow into the typical SLOT support zone.

The next push higher will I believe, offer another attractive risk/reward trade and one that traders should be willing to swing trade.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Bonds – Are We at Near the End of this 3-Wave Structure??

I have been waiting for the TLT to break below the low from February 21st to possibly begin the completion of its current bigger time-frame price structure … today price broke below that $116.51 level and I think the next swing trade in bonds will be to the upside.  Here is what I am seeing. Continue reading

Where the Rubber Meets the Road …

Yesterday I took a look at the break to a new minor high in the tech-heavy QQQ ETF and mapped out three possible scenarios for price as we go forward.  Earlier today I looked at both the SPY and IWM (small-cap stocks) ETFs … small caps are actually breaking out of their consolidation pattern and late on Monday, price on the 195-min chart flipped from yellow/contraction warning candles and signaled the beginning of a new trend expansion phase.  The SPY chart is the index that I like to follow the closest to track what the “overall” market is doing, and it is lagging the QQQ and IWM – we are still below the prior minor pivot high, and we are still in a trend strength contraction zone.  Here are the 195-min charts …

IWM – 195 Minute Chart

SPY – 195 Minute Chart

Bottom Line … small caps will be important to watch, but the SPY is the one that matters most I believe.

Cheers … Leaf_West