Market Internals – October 27, 2017 …

The market is breaking higher and TSLA is continuing lower … my world is perfect!!  The one fly in the ointment, however, is the poor showing in market internals today.

Market Internals

You can see that the McClellan Summation Index is falling today despite the bullish action in the large cap market darlings.

McClellan Summation Index – Daily Chart

I don’t really care when the market makes a breakout move above a prior all-time high when the McClellan Oscillator is actually declining.  I am watching the internals in the hope of support being found here soon and then a bigger wider, more broad market push higher is launched.  That could lead to a real melt up into year-end.

Cheers … Leaf_West


Didn’t Quite Make It Back to the Toilet …

I wrote a blog piece on October 13th about Chipotle Mexican Grill Restaurants (CMG) (click here).  I wrote it back then because the daily ATR resistance level had been broken and therefore I was wondering whether or not the stock was complete in terms of its downward pain.  I stated that despite the improvement in the look of the daily/195-min charts, I was going to hold off looking at taking any positional/swing trades in CMG until at least after CMG was able to take-out the relative strength indicator’s prior pivot high on the 195-min chart.  It never got that far, before the earnings report took out the legs from underneath the stock price today.

My title reference of “the Mexican Two-Step” back on Oct 13th refers to the common occurrence that Canadians experience when down in Mexico during the winter months … bugs/viruses in the water/food/drinks often show up in the need to spend significant time on the toilet.  Well, it looks like the holders of CMG going into the earnings report didn’t quite make it back to the toilet in time to avoid an accident!

I thought it would be useful to put up the longer-term charts, to show traders once again why I think you need to have the longer-term frame charts in sync with your intended trade if you expect to swing trade any stock nowadays.  Ignoring the bigger time can cause serious pain at times … Continue reading

TSLA Update – October 25, 2017 …

I last updated TSLA on October 17th (click here) last week.  The firing of the weekly price squeeze looks like it is starting and as I thought, it looks like the squeeze is going to fire to the downside.  That would make it 4 in a row to the downside.  I continue to hold bearish option positions in TSLA.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Market Internals – October 24, 2017 …

The market internals are weaker again today, even though the indexes continue to push higher.

McClellan Summation Index – Daily Chart

I think there are better times to begin long swing trades than currently exist here with the overall market near what looks like the end to the recent push higher.  Remember, the market direction and magnitude of its moves make a big difference in the moves made by almost all stocks in those indexes.

Cheers … Leaf_West

AMZN Update – October 23, 2017 …

Earnings are scheduled for after the close on October 26th for AMZN … I posted on October 18th & 19th (click here) the reason why I had started a bearish position on AMZN and today’s close saw AMZN push right into the area that I thought would hold going into the earnings report.  Here are the updated daily charts …

AMZN – Daily Chart #1

The daily ATR support level and the lower parallel line are right here where AMZN closed today … I think this level will likely be where AMZN is going into its earnings report this week.

AMZN – Daily Chart #2

I suspect that any bounce coming out of the earnings report will be the bounces I will be looking for to get more aggressive in shorting AMZN.  I have a Nov 24th weekly put spread (1000/980) that is trading at about $13 currently vs the $8.72 I paid on the 18th.  Max profit is $20, so I will see where AMZN is trading tomorrow to see if I want to take partial or entire profits before the earnings on Thursday.

Cheers … Leaf_West

HD Update – October 23, 2017 …

HD is acting pretty well today considering the tape is just kind of choppy.  The 15-min and 65-min chart resistance ATR’s have been broken today, so I decided to take a closer look to see if I should be looking to positionally or swing-trade HD here soon.  There next quarterly report is not due until Nov 21st, so maybe we are about to start a ramp into earnings, which often happen in large-cap market darlings.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

AMZN Update – October 19, 2017 …

I wrote an update on AMZN yesterday that raised the possibility of the stock making a possible Wave 2 high of a new possible trend or at best a Wave 2 high of a large sideways consolidation pattern (click here).  The stock is about $13 below where it was when I wrote that blog post and it looks like it is possibly testing a break of the weekly broadening price pattern that I have been tracking for AMZN.

You might say … whoop-t-do, price is breaking some imaginary price pattern!!  I say beware when price breaks price patterns, because it could be the early warning of a change in trend.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Is Gold finished with its Corrective Pull-Back?

The Gold ETF (GLD) broke out of the downward broadening price pattern back in August.  That break, if accepted, would be an important inflection point for traders and signal a great swing trade opportunity for those paying attention.  I traded that break higher but have been out of the precious metal trades since September 8th when I noted on this blog site about the oncoming strength in the US$ (click here).

Here are the charts I am watching …

Gold ETF (GLD) – Weekly Chart

Gold ETF (GLD) – Daily Chart

The daily ATR resistance level was broken last Friday and this week you could argue that GLD has done exactly what I like to see price do when I am watching for the “acceptance” of that ATR break (i.e., a controlled price consolidation that holds above the new ATR support level and/or the prior price pivot low).

I am starting long swing positions in gold miners today, with the thought to build that position over the next couple of weeks.  My stop will be if/when GLD drops below the October 6th daily candle low of $119.78 on two consecutive 65-min candles or on a closing daily candle basis (whichever comes first) …

Cheers … Leaf_West