AMZN Update – October 18, 2017 …

I last wrote about AMZN back on September 12, 2017, (click here) … the gist of that update was that I thought the longer-dated charts were possibly entering into at best consolidation pattern that would likely lead to no better than market performance, but that the smaller time frames were actually showing a nice bull-flag that was about to break.

I did catch a nice intra-day trade that next day, but since that breakout failed after one day, I have been monitoring whether or not we were beginning that bigger distribution pattern.  I am updating my view of AMZN today because if my view is correct and we are likely forming a large distribution pattern going forward here with AMZN, then it is possible that we have just completed an expanding flat corrective pattern off of the first push lower.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Constellation Brands – October 18, 2017 …

Constellation Brands (STZ) has broken last week’s inside candle to the upside and I am looking at putting on a small positional trade to see how far this move can take us.  Maybe we only push higher into this week’s OpEx expiry or maybe we are seeing the resumption of a nice trend following the consolidation pattern put in after the great earnings beat on October 5th (+14% above estimates) that could end up lasting several weeks.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

TSLA Update – October 17, 2017 …

There has been lots of what I would consider as being negative news on TSLA lately.  That includes company-specific items along with news from competitors about their own EV product plans.  I continue to trade TSLA intra-day most weeks as I await the appropriate time to start with my next longer-term short position.  Today I started that short position via options (I sold bearish Nov monthly expiry call spreads).  Here are how the charts look to me … Continue reading

Market Internals – October 16, 2017 …

The market has run higher into the meat of the Q3 earnings reporting season … here is a look at the market internals.

McClellan Summation Index – Daily

I like when the odds are in your favor … I commented in late August, that the internals were setting up for a rally in the market.  To me, it appears like the market internals are suggesting at best a period of consolidation or at worst an interim pivot high leading to some sort of a pullback.

If we are going to start chopping, I plan on reducing the time frame of the trades I put on.

Cheers … Leaf_West

DIS Update – October 12, 2017 …

DIS broke a bear-flag on the daily chart today, to continue what looks like a bearish trend on the weekly chart.

DIS – Weekly Chart

Despite traders that come on the TV and talk about buying DIS below $100 as a good entry point for swing trades, I just don’t see the same risk/reward as they do.  To me, the broadening pattern to the upside on the weekly chart has been decisively broken and until that chart starts looking better, there is no need to look to swing long DIS.

The relative-strength vs the SPY ETF indicator (right chart) is breaking to new lows, and that to me confirms to stay away from DIS in terms of long swing trades.

DIS – Daily Chart

Bounces happen during bigger trend moves lower … any oversold bounces in blue-chip stocks, especially in names as iconic as DIS is, can typically last several days.  Eventually, however, the bigger more dominant trend takes over and price will break out of these possible bear-flags price patterns.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Market Internals – October 10, 2017 …

Back on August 27th, I posted my thoughts that the market internals were likely making a bottom and that traders therefore should be looking to take advantage of the upcoming bounce in the market.  As has been the case of the market the past several years, the bounce has lasted longer and gone further than I would have thought.  I was looking at it ending around the September monthly OpEx date.

Well, the measure of market internals that I rely on is the McClellan Summation Index …

McClellan Summation Index – Daily Chart

As you can see on the above chart, the Summation Index painted its first red candle since this rally started.  That is not to say that we are starting to begin a new trend lower here on the S&P 500 Index, but it does suggest that the push higher has begun to weaken.  Look at that move …. this market is amazing.

Cheers … Leaf_West

WFC Update – October 3, 2017 …

Here is the bigger broadening pattern that I have been tracking since late 2016 …

WFC – Weekly Chart

The broadening pattern seems to be giving traders good levels to trade against … I think that the median line will act as resistance here.

WFC – Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that price is extended here as we push into that weekly pattern’s median line.

Cheers … Leaf_West

NFLX Update – October 2, 2017 …

NFLX reports their quarterly earnings after the close on October 16th.  After a huge July monthly move, the past two months have seen NFLX consolidate around the high of that large range monthly candle.  Which way will price go … I think that we should get some volatility in either direction regardless of which way it ends up going.  I would have to think that downside volatility could be a bit more vicious, due to the length of the upward run so far, but I remain open-minded.

You sometimes get the MoMo tech names to run higher into earnings, but maybe, NFLX will actually pullback into this next earnings report. Continue reading