Volatility Audio Alert …

This morning the audio alert I have set on the ratio of 30-day volatility to 90-day volatility was activated.

Volatility Ratio – 65 Minute Chart

Maybe nothing will happen out of this early warning, but I will be following the VIX a little more carefully over the next week into month-end next Thursday.  The equity sell-off in China the past couple of days may flow over to other equity markets so I have decided to reduce my long positions by at least 1/2 here today before the early close.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Next-Up … A Melt-Up Higher???

I keep a close eye on the market internals because that is really the fuel that allows the market to make larger moves …

McClellan Summation Index – Daily Chart

Today saw the first positive market breadth signal since October 11th … that is over a month and all that has happened with the SPY is a slow grind higher in price while the trend strength histogram pulled back into the Chop Zone.  That pullback means that the SPY is now ready for its next expansion phase …

An expansion phase coming out of this holiday trading week makes perfect sense as we head into month-end next Thursday, and then get ready for the Santa rally that everyone is counting on.

Cheers … Leaf_West


Are Gold and Gold Miners Finally Ready to Go?

I wrote about a possible bottom in gold back in mid-October (click here), but for the most part the trades I put on  back then did not work-out.  No biggie as I was legging into that possible trade set-up and the amounts were in reality, insignificant.

I have started some new trades in NUGT and HGU (TSX Canadian exchange for my retirement accounts) today as I am thinking that maybe, just maybe, the US dollar, gold and the gold miners are ready to start moving.  Here is my view of the charts … Continue reading

TSLA Update – November 13, 2017 …

TSLA is making its product announcement on Nov 16th about its EV semi-truck.  They are likely to try and leverage that announcement into some type of an equity underwriting as the cash burn of the Model 3 is quite intense right now, and I think it is only going to get worse, so Elon would be smart to take advantage of any positive news to shove a bunch more equity down traders’ throats at these obscene price levels (>$300).

I continue to like TSLA to the short side, and I am looking to add a bearish trading position again over the next several days as price bounces into resistance …

TSLA – Weekly Chart

My bigger target in the medium term is that lower support level on the broadening price pattern at around $240.  Before that next leg lower, we need to find resistance a little higher up to suck in some more of Ron Barron’s money.

TSLA – Daily Chart

The median line at around $323 or the daily ATR resistance at about $330 should be the upper lid on any price bounce this week into that expected equity financing.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Have we Hit a Low in Inflation & Interest Rates?

One of the biggest items impacting the stock market the past several years has been all-time or near all-time low interest rates and by definition, low actual and expected inflation rates.  Eventually this long, long trend will end and we will begin on a new leg of rising inflation.  What will cause that is any one’s guess.

Soybean ETF (SOYB) – Weekly Chart

The long-term trend in Soybeans has been lower … eventually, supply and demand forces will reverse that trend.  The weekly chart has been in the condition of contraction in terms of trend strength, the past 7 weeks.  Any squeeze higher will possibly break a multi-year downtrend and possibly be a coincident sign of a generational low in inflation/interest rates being made.

Cheers … Leaf_West