2018 Tax Loss Candidates – week ending Dec 14, 2018

Tax loss candidates sorted by the bounce off of their December lows – highest to smallest.  I added a couple of new columns to the right.  They are labeled “30mATR” “65mATR” and “195mATR”.  Those columns paint a green check mark when the ATR position for that time frame is in a position of support.

Obviously when these stocks make a bottom after the tax selling is complete, they will flip the ATRs to support on their bounce higher.  These columns just help me keep track of which stocks are beginning to move.

I’m going to just pin this daily update to the front of my blog so I don’t have to tweet out each day’s update.  Here is a running summary of the number of lows hit on each day this month.

Updates (Dec 14th) … the market pushed lower today on growth fears.  I will update my road maps this weekend, but as you can see on the chart below, new lows in my list tax loss candidates expanded today – 28 or 62.2% of my list made new December lows today taking out the prior max low date of December 10th.  I am expecting to find a couple of more tax loss trades before year-end, so the next two weeks should hopefully give us a capitulation whoosh …. maybe the FOMC announcement on Wednesday December 19th will mark the absolute low for many stocks.

If you look at the chart at the top of the blog post, you will note that only NOC has made it above its Nov 30th closing value.  Eight stocks are showing positive relative strength vs the S&P 500, and 11 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index this past week – four of those 11 were from the energy sector so I am still holding out hope for my VLO and APC tax trades (both of those outperformed the SPX this past week).

Updates (Dec 13th) … the market was flat today, but now all of my tax loss candidates are up off of their December lows.  No changes to my tax-loss holdings in VLO or APC.

Updates (Dec 12th) … I started a position in a possible tax-loss selling candidate today.  I purchased March monthly $70 call options in VLO at $7.48.  I chose the March month because I am also trading VLO as an overall valuation play going into 2019.

I also bought a starting position in APC … here I am just playing a tax-loss bounce in APC and energy stocks in general.  I bought the Jan $55 calls for $2.10 today.  I have about a 1/3 position and I want to buy on any consolidation/small pullbacks over the rest of this week.

Updates (Dec 11th) … just looking at the first couple of names on this list (NOC, ATVI, and EA are interesting charts to me, and possibly the first candidates to buy using options.  I’ll monitor and update the blog going forward.

Cheers … Leaf_West

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