2018 Tax Loss Candidates – Week Ending Dec 21, 2018

Dec 21st Update – I think I heard earlier this week that December 2018 so far is the worst December in the S&P since the great depression of the 30’s. I’m going to keep track of my tax-loss data for data sake, but I’m going to focus more the next couple of weeks on the overall market and the big momo stocks that could give us some great bounces out of support rather than focusing too much on tax loss candidates.

Instead of updating my blog daily/weekly, I’ll just publish a final 2018 analysis after the January OpEx.

Here is the new low list as of Friday’s close …

Here is the sorted list of the watchlist based on last week’s performance ...

Dec 20th Update – Stocks continue to sell-off making the tax-loss idea a tough one to get traction with. New lows hit a high for the month that I have been monitoring them. Maybe OpEx helps this market to complete the heavy selling. We’ll see …

Dec 19th Update – FOMC rate decision today did little to help stocks bounce off of their December lows.  The tax loss candidates that I am monitoring continued to generally grapple for a bottom to trade off of.

No bottom evident yet for the majority of the tax-loss watchlist.  The only stock that looks like it probably put a definitive bottom in is GE, and I am not going to trade that name.

GE is now 15% off of its low.  GIS reported earnings today and despite a revenue miss, it bounced and that stock could have seen the worst now that it has reported and there were no major surprises.  My son Paul bought some stock today after the earnings announcement (he works with GIS here in Canada).

This sorting of the watch list is based on the 5-day relative strength vs the SPY ETF.  Nothing really jumps out to me as we have not made the kind of lows I would like to trade against.  We will see what happens the last two days of this week – Cheers.

Dec 18th Update – I posted a blog earlier today about adding a position in NOC as part of my tax-loss portfolio (click here).  Here are the charts for today …

Another day of new December lows for this watchlist … a little better than yesterday, but I think the rest of December will be determined by the FOMC and their announcement tomorrow.

Watchlist sorted by the biggest bounces off of each stocks December lows … note that GE is now the biggest bouncer.  I don’t plan on trading that one since its price is so low, and I would have to trade a ton of shares to make it worthwhile.

The above list sorts the stocks by the ranking since Nov 30th close … NOC is the best performing stock of the list having lost only 1.13% since November 30th.  No stock is higher than its Nov 30th levels.

The above is my monitoring the watch list for possible reversal candles on the 65m, 195m and daily charts.  NOC made a second candle confirmation of a possible 195min reversal candle, and HIG made a possible 65min reversal candle with the last candle of the day today.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day ….

December 17th Update  –  Another day another beating of the bull tards … new December lows were seen in 75% of my possible candidates.

Here is the data at today’s close …

I created a new sheet to watch for/identify possible reversal candles on the 65min, 195min and daily time frames.  Here it is …

The only possible reversal candle that my screens pop up today is BHGE on the 65min chart.  No changes to my two holdings (VLO/APC) … maybe once we get the FOMC decision the market can bounce.  If not, then maybe it gets nice and ugly into year-end and relief is only seen that last day or two before the end of the year.

Cheers … Leaf_West

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