I’ve been holding off updating my last US$ analysis until I was more certain that a low for my projected Wave 3 was in place, and I think that is pretty likely with this week’s close. My last analysis was done on September 8th when I thought that we had just completed the Wave 2 lower in what I was predicting to be a 3-wave move … that analysis turned out to be pretty accurate (click here). Here are the US$ monthly and weekly charts I posted back on September 8th. Continue reading
Yesterday’s high of the day was $270.00 for the SPY … that took price officially into the SLOT resistance zone that I like to monitor for counter-trend rallies. Due to the strength of the move off of the prior highs into Friday’s low, I think that it is highly likely that we need at least one more leg to the price structure we are currently in when looking at the 195-min chart.
Whether that next move to a new lower low is the last leg of a corrective price structure that precedes a push up to new higher highs is yet to be seen. I suspect that due to the strength/melt-up of the market into the January highs, we are going to need a bigger more complex price structure move lower … that is why I believe traders will see a 3-wave structure to this correction before it is all said and done.
Here is what I think traders should be preparing for …
Bullish Scenario – SPY 195 Minute Chart #1
The typical turning point for a corrective bounce is that 61.8% resistance level – $273.72. The “C” wave of an ABC zigzag will typically terminate at around that 1.272x extension target, which would see the SPY get down to the $243.76 level.
Bearish Scenario – SPY 195 Minute Chart #2
So the near-term resistance zone for a bigger 3-wave corrective move in price is still at that 61.8% resistance level … Wave-2’s typically will terminate at the 1.618x extension target zone at around $232.12. The final Wave-3 target zone would be down at the $220.99 level.
Bullish/Bearish Scenario – SPY 195 Minute Chart #3
In either of the bullish/bearish scenarios I depict above, price will need to find an interim resistance level here soon … the intra-day high so far today for the SPY is at $271.79, which is pretty close to the last pivot high of $272.36 and that 61.8% resistance level of $273.72. Maybe we grind into that final resistance high on Friday which will then set up the next leg lower to begin next week.
Bottom Line – I believe the strength of the melt-up into the January highs, and the strength of the push lower last week will lead to at least a 2-wave structure lower into support. Personally, I think a 3-wave structure is what is going to happen but I will be giving the more bullish scenario respect as we push into that $1.272x / $243.76 zone as well.
Cheers … Leaf_West
I’m not really looking for swing trades here in the current market, but I did look at my daily time frame bull flag scan results earlier today. The best looking bull flag identified to me was for CHRW the $12.7 billion transport company. Here is the bull-flag setting up on the daily chart …
CHRW – Daily Chart
You can see the nice little bull-flag set-up on the price chart … price is just underneath the 20SMA and its signal line so if price is going to break this flag pattern, it will also return to the bullish side of the moving averages.
The Relative Strength indicator on the right-side panel shows how well CHRW has held in during all of the selling in the market over the past week or so … impressive.
The last quarterly earnings report was released on January 30th and revenue was up 16.1% which was a nice little beat … earnings also beat expectations ($1.08 vs $0.84). If the global economy is indeed accelerating as well as most pundits are saying, transports including CHRW should have the wind at their backs for the next several quarters.
CHRW – Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows how price is still above the weekly ATR support level … the trend strength histogram is still in the extreme trend strength warning zone, and that is the only thing negative I can say about CHRW’s charts. Normally, an extended weekly chart would turn me away from getting long a stock based on a daily chart pattern, but the monthly chart is not extended so I think that any consolidation on the weekly chart could end up being shorter in duration than normal and indeed may be complete when this daily bull-flag pattern breaks to the upside.
CHRW – 195 Minute Chart
If the daily chart is going to break the bull-flag pattern higher, it will need to first break the 195-min ATR resistance level at $93.61 … I have an audio alert set there, and I will revisit this stock when/if that ATR level is taken out.
Cheers … Leaf_West
One of the traders that follows me has reached out to get more info on how I use TC2000 … I have been really busy on some personal business lately (and will be for several more months), but I have committed to get him copies of my TC2000 page formats over the next couple of weeks.
Because I thought it was timely with the more volatile markets we are now facing, and because I had a little bit of time today, i decided to write a PDF on how I use TC2000 for intra-day trading … I have posted it under the Education Tab as well, but you can access that TC 2000 PDF by clicking here.
Cheers … Leaf_West