AAPL Update – Dec 13/18 …

It looks to me like AAPL has just completed a 3-wave price pattern into support.

AAPL – 65 Minute Chart #1

As you can see from the above chart, the 3-waves look pretty obvious.  What is also obvious is that AAPL is not likely to hit their prior all-time highs any time soon.  SLOT resistance is in the $198 – $219 area and the Point of Control since the correction off of the all-time high is $220.30.

AAPL – 65 Minute Chart #2

Since the quarterly earnings report/announcement of no longer providing iPhone sales figures, the Point of Control level generated during the stock selling is $179.04.

Bottom Line – lots of charts look like we have made some type of tradeable low … AAPL is another leading stock that looks like it should bounce here for a couple of weeks at least.

Cheers … Leaf_West

JPM Update – Dec 13/18 …

I wrote a blog post about Downtown Josh Brown’s bullish call on JPM back on November 2, 2018 (click here).  Bottom line is that he proclaimed JPM as one of his favorite stock pick/set-ups … I thought it was just bouncing into resistance.

Here is the chart from that post …

JPM – 65 Minute Chart (November 2, 2018)

Here is the current chart …

JPM – 65 Minute Chart

The 61.8% SLOT level was once again a very important resistance.  You can see that we are pretty close to the C-wave 1.272x extension target.  When I look at the C-wave up close, I do not see a nice normal wave structure, so I am a bit hesitant to call the end to the bigger C-wave move here.  The move lower might be done here but maybe we need one last new minor low to complete – we’ll see. 

Banks as a sector have shown all sorts of problems the past while in comparison to the overall market.  I think JPM and the rest of the banking industry will continue to be laggards as a slowing in the economy gets baked into the stock market.

Cheers … Leaf_West  

ES Update – December 11, 2018 …

Although today’s price action was not what market bulls would have wanted considering how we gapped higher and then trended lower for most of the day, the price wave created by today’s action still keeps possible the read I talked about in yesterday’s road map (click here for that post).

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES) – 30 Minute Chart

Once we see that we are bouncing higher out of a new minor low tomorrow sometime (probably in the morning, then we can watch to see if resistance around that 2726 level (61.8% resistance) will hold and whether or not my read of the bigger price pattern is accurate.

Bottom Line – while not ideal, the price action in the ES today still keeps in play a bigger bounce out of yesterday’s low.

Cheers … Leaf_West

2018 Tax Loss Candidates – Dec 12, 2018

Tax loss candidates sorted by the bounce off of their December lows – highest to smallest.  I added a couple of new columns to the right.  They are labeled “30mATR” “65mATR” and “195mATR”.  Those columns paint a green check mark when the ATR position for that time frame is in a position of support.

Obviously when these stocks make a bottom after the tax selling is complete, they will flip the ATRs to support on their bounce higher.  These columns just help me keep track of which stocks are beginning to move.

I’m going to just pin this daily update to the front of my blog so I don’t have to tweet out each day’s update.  Here is a running summary of the number of lows hit on each day this month.

Updates (Dec 13th) … the market was flat today, but now all of my tax loss candidates are up off of their December lows.  No changes to my tax-loss holdings in VLO or APC.

Updates (Dec 12th) … I started a position in a possible tax-loss selling candidate today.  I purchased March monthly $70 call options in VLO at $7.48.  I chose the March month because I am also trading VLO as an overall valuation play going into 2019.

I also bought a starting position in APC … here I am just playing a tax-loss bounce in APC and energy stocks in general.  I bought the Jan $55 calls for $2.10 today.  I have about a 1/3 position and I want to buy on any consolidation/small pullbacks over the rest of this week.

Updates (Dec 11th) … just looking at the first couple of names on this list (NOC, ATVI, and EA are interesting charts to me, and possibly the first candidates to buy using options.  I’ll monitor and update the blog going forward.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Market Roadmap – Dec 10, 2018 …

So where is the market heading?  Some people think it is headed lower, some think it has to rip higher into the Xmas rally.  I have a bias that we are not finished the corrective pattern off of the all-time highs, but the exact day-to-day correction will unfold however it plans to unfold.  I just watch the wave action and react as they are painted on my charts.  Here are the current charts …

S&P 500 Futures Contract (ES) – 30 Minute Chart

The S&P 500 Index futures contract (ES) looks like it made a 3-wave move down right into the lower support level on my broadening price pattern.  That could mean that this portion of the bigger current wave structure down is complete.

NASDQ 100 Futures Contract (NQ) – 240 Minute Chart

If the ES contract has made a low, it would make sense that the NASDQ has also made a low or is close to making a low … the above 240 min chart could be bottoming right in this 1.382x timing window. 

If I am right about a bigger more complex corrective pattern, then possibly we go up with the S&P 500 into resistance before pushing lower into a final bigger Wave-C low.  If that is the future path for price, then the ES is likely to carve out the following pattern.

S&P 500 Futures Contract (ES) – 240 Minute Chart

Both of these C-wave support levels could be reached right around the end of 2018.

McClellan Summation Index  – 65 Minute Chart

The McClellan Summation Index has flipped bearish and needs to get back above the 20EMA and the ATR resistance levels to flip the market underpinnings back to the bullish side of the ledger.

Bottom Line … maybe we are going to bounce from here.  I posted some FANG charts on Stock Twits and Twitter earlier today and you could argue that the charts look more likely to bounce than they do to continue collapsing.  Any bounce happens from the smaller time frame before they expand to the bigger time frames – its pretty simple to watch for that bounce therefore.

Cheers … Leaf_West

2018 Tax Loss Selling – Update (Dec 8/18)

Lots of selling in all stocks so far this month … as I have done in previous years, I monitor a list of about 45-50 stocks for possible candidates to trade into early January.  Typically this would mean buying call options and/or stock in the last two weeks of the year from a list of candidates that are possibly in the midst of selling by investors who are liquidating their big 2018 losers for tax-purposes.

As mentioned in previous blog posts on this topic, I screen for stocks at the end of November each year (or the first Friday of December if that means Dec 1-4th) that have a large 2018 price range (minimum of 25%) of the stock’s closing price and the closing price for my analysis is in the bottom 10% of that YTD price range.  This year I decided to use the S&P 500 as my scanning universe.

I monitor these tax loss candidates on a variety of ways, but the end goal is to try and find stocks that are clear “victims” of unrelenting tax-loss selling and therefore are likely candidates to pop once the 2018 selling is complete – that can mean a pop on the last few days of the month and typically the first couple of weeks in January.  My preference is to use January monthly call options so I know my exact risk for each trade.

Anyways, I will try to keep traders abreast of what I am seeing and planning to trade again this year.  Below are a list of PDFs taken of my tax-loss watch list sorted a variety of ways – I will update them every weekend until the end of January 2019.

Here is a summary of what sectors are dominating my 2018 tax loss list …

You can see that this year, the sector most found in my list is the energy sector.  I like when a sector is well represented as that could mean that all stocks in that sector are getting liquidated and that the reasons behind the weakness are less related to company-specific issues.

Here is my watch list sorted by the last week’s stock performance …

Anyways I’ll put my PDFs as at December 7, 2018 here for any interested traders (you will need to zoom in on the sheet to see all of the detail).  All I need to do now is to constantly reviewing the daily charts for these stocks to see when and if any good trade candidates appear over the next couple of weeks.

Cheers … Leaf_West

GDX Update – December 7, 2018 …

Gold miners is still one of the sectors/areas I am looking to for a good start to the 2019 trading year.  (see/read the previous blog discussion).  Here is the updated GDX chart …

Gold Miner ETF (GDX) – 195 Minute Chart

With all the talk about a kinder, gentler Fed in 2019, then the US$ may have peaked for the near term, and that is typically great for US$-priced commodities like gold/silver.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Road Map for the NASDQ 100 – December 3, 2018 …

I updated the roadmap for the S&P 500 Index/futures this morning and here now is my map for the NASDQ 100 futures …

My last update was on November 21st (click here for that post).  Here is the roadmap and time window from that posting.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #6 (November 21st)

If you read that earlier post, you will note that the three prior smaller corrective bounces in this move lower all came in at the 1.382x time window.  That prior symmetry is why I think the 1.382x window will work again this time.  That implies that the timing window for the bigger B wave corrective bounce is for early in the morning of December 10th. Note from this morning’s post that the timing window for the ES futures contract is tomorrow morning, so having the Q’s hang around until next Monday would imply lots of chop for the next several days.

The more important item to keep track of is the actual bounce and where resistance is found … here is the current chart for the Q’s.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

You can see that the prior corrective bounces in terms of resistance, failed right in the low 50%’s … so I am looking for both symmetry in the time window (1.382x) and price (around low 50%’s).  I have noted a possible sooner timing window on the chart above because of how the S&P 500 chart looks to be finding a sooner timing top (tomorrow morning).  Timing windows are usually pretty close for the S&P and NASDQ 100 so I have to keep aware of that fact.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2


So we are close in terms of price of where I expect resistance to hold for the Q’s … now we just have to confirm a move lower before really being convinced that my wave count is right.

If my wave count is correct, then I am looking for final C-wave support around the 6100 level and for that support window to come in around the end of the year/beginning of 2019.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If I look at the bigger broadening price pattern, I see a possiblity of price going all the way down to the lower support line.  That seems like a long way to go, but I am keeping an open mind, if in fact we do head lower to a bigger C-wave support target.

Cheers … Leaf_West



S&P 500 Road Map – December 3, 2018 …

Let there be light …. the Donald seems to have delivered once again with China, and the market is gapping higher coming out of this weekend’s dinner date with the Chinese President.  Time to take a look at the markets to see where we are versus our road map …

Here is a wave count chart for the S&P 500 Index from my November 21st posting (click here for that post).

S&P 500 Index – 195 Minute Chart #2 (November 21st)

You can see from the above chart that I am expecting the market to find resistance right above the a-pivot high (2815.15)  Since the market has not opened and therefore, the S&P Index does not yet show us the indicated move, I will use the ES mini futures contract as a substitute for the S&P 500 cash index.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

The a-wave pivot high is 2818.00 on the ES futures contract … the high so far overnight is 2814.00.  I am showing my timing windows on the above chart as well.

You can see that the minor-a wave high (purple) for bigger B (red) came right in at the 1.382x timing window … the minor-b wave low (purple) for bigger B (red) came in right at the 2.0x timing window.  It appears that we are pushing right into my expected resistance level for the end of bigger wave-B (red) here at the 2.382x extension window which is scheduled for tomorrow in the overnight trading session (2am – 6am).

So the proof in the pudding will be shown the next couple of days … let’s look at the wave structure of the last move here into what I think will be resistance.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2

You can see from the above chart that the minor-c-wave into the B-wave high is making what looks like a normal 3-wave pattern.  It looks like we are near the end of the minor 3rd wave which will also mean that the B-wave is complete.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If we do find resistance and start to move lower, I think that would be proof that we are going down to complete the bigger ABC structure.  My minimum C-wave target is the 1.272x extension target which is around 2510 on the ES futures contract.

Bottom Line – most traders will be thinking that this move of the last week or so is the start of the Xmas rally and that we are headed higher to make new all-time highs.  I obviously don’t believe that we are ready to do that, and we are, in fact, about to start the biggest, most viscous part of a corrective wave (the c-leg).  I want to watch closely here over the next day or so to get confirmation that the B-wave is indeed complete and we are beginning the next leg lower.

Cheers … Leaf_West