AAPL … Looks like a Year-End Ramp Job!

Today is the “triple witching” expiration date where index options and futures expire along with stock options.  Once we get this behind us, institutional managers are free to ramp their favorite stocks into year-end.

One of the stocks that I own call options on into Dec 29th expiry is AAPL …

AAPL – 195 Minute Chart #1

To me it looks like the third wave of a 3-wave price structure is about to officially break the ATR resistance level and “signal” the beginning of the final push into year-end.  $180 is my target … the market likes nice round numbers in part because of stock option strike prices.

AAPL – 195 Minute Chart #2

The Trend Strength histogram looks like it has completed the majority of its consolidation/pullback into the Chop Zone, and that should allow price to make its next push higher.

Price Momentum and the Moving Average Spread Indicators look like they are in a good position as well to get long AAPL into year-end.

Bottom Line – All that we need now is for Trump to not fuck up the last push into year-end!!

Cheers … Leaf_West

GS Update – December 14, 2017 …

My favorite Fast Money talking head, Dan Nathan talked about GS on today’s show so I called up my bigger broadening price pattern to see if I can see the bearish outlook that Dan sees …

GS – Weekly Chart #1

Price is back testing the upper resistance line of the broadening price pattern on the GS weekly chart … with the strength shown in that kick-off move, I would have to assume that price is going to push to new highs.  Question is whether or not we can go much higher if the overall market has any kind of a hiccup during early 2018.  I ask that because of my post yesterday that talked about the extreme trend strength warning on the S&P 500 Index (the first since July 1995).

GS – Weekly Chart #2

All of GS’s weekly chart indicators are pointing higher …

GS – Weekly Chart #3

And it looks like the R/S is about to break out of a consolidation pattern … I love when it does that!!

GS – Weekly Chart #4

I have an audio alert set to warn me when the R/S indicator makes a break higher …

Cheers … Leaf_West

CRM Update – December 13, 2017 …

One of the issues facing traders right now is the pending holiday season which typically sees less active markets.  That lack of conviction or volume in trading can often bring about “fake” movement in stock prices and that can lead traders from getting sucked into getting involved in a longer-dated trade when they should be holding off and waiting for more confirmation.  Is that the case here in CRM? Continue reading

JPM Update – December 11, 2017

One of the best things traders can do as the day winds down is to look at the 30-min charts to see which stocks are setting up for a possible expansion push higher the next trading day.

One of the stocks I noticed today that could be a stock in motion tomorrow is JPM …

JPM – 30 Minute Chart

Maybe tomorrow it coils even tighter, but the two biggest stocks in the XLF Financial Sector ETF (JPM and BRK.B) look like they are coiling and getting ready to make an expansion push higher.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Didn’t Quite Make It Back to the Toilet …

I wrote a blog piece on October 13th about Chipotle Mexican Grill Restaurants (CMG) (click here).  I wrote it back then because the daily ATR resistance level had been broken and therefore I was wondering whether or not the stock was complete in terms of its downward pain.  I stated that despite the improvement in the look of the daily/195-min charts, I was going to hold off looking at taking any positional/swing trades in CMG until at least after CMG was able to take-out the relative strength indicator’s prior pivot high on the 195-min chart.  It never got that far, before the earnings report took out the legs from underneath the stock price today.

My title reference of “the Mexican Two-Step” back on Oct 13th refers to the common occurrence that Canadians experience when down in Mexico during the winter months … bugs/viruses in the water/food/drinks often show up in the need to spend significant time on the toilet.  Well, it looks like the holders of CMG going into the earnings report didn’t quite make it back to the toilet in time to avoid an accident!

I thought it would be useful to put up the longer-term charts, to show traders once again why I think you need to have the longer-term frame charts in sync with your intended trade if you expect to swing trade any stock nowadays.  Ignoring the bigger time can cause serious pain at times … Continue reading

HD Update – October 23, 2017 …

HD is acting pretty well today considering the tape is just kind of choppy.  The 15-min and 65-min chart resistance ATR’s have been broken today, so I decided to take a closer look to see if I should be looking to positionally or swing-trade HD here soon.  There next quarterly report is not due until Nov 21st, so maybe we are about to start a ramp into earnings, which often happen in large-cap market darlings.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Is Gold finished with its Corrective Pull-Back?

The Gold ETF (GLD) broke out of the downward broadening price pattern back in August.  That break, if accepted, would be an important inflection point for traders and signal a great swing trade opportunity for those paying attention.  I traded that break higher but have been out of the precious metal trades since September 8th when I noted on this blog site about the oncoming strength in the US$ (click here).

Here are the charts I am watching …

Gold ETF (GLD) – Weekly Chart

Gold ETF (GLD) – Daily Chart

The daily ATR resistance level was broken last Friday and this week you could argue that GLD has done exactly what I like to see price do when I am watching for the “acceptance” of that ATR break (i.e., a controlled price consolidation that holds above the new ATR support level and/or the prior price pivot low).

I am starting long swing positions in gold miners today, with the thought to build that position over the next couple of weeks.  My stop will be if/when GLD drops below the October 6th daily candle low of $119.78 on two consecutive 65-min candles or on a closing daily candle basis (whichever comes first) …

Cheers … Leaf_West