Didn’t Quite Make It Back to the Toilet …

I wrote a blog piece on October 13th about Chipotle Mexican Grill Restaurants (CMG) (click here).  I wrote it back then because the daily ATR resistance level had been broken and therefore I was wondering whether or not the stock was complete in terms of its downward pain.  I stated that despite the improvement in the look of the daily/195-min charts, I was going to hold off looking at taking any positional/swing trades in CMG until at least after CMG was able to take-out the relative strength indicator’s prior pivot high on the 195-min chart.  It never got that far, before the earnings report took out the legs from underneath the stock price today.

My title reference of “the Mexican Two-Step” back on Oct 13th refers to the common occurrence that Canadians experience when down in Mexico during the winter months … bugs/viruses in the water/food/drinks often show up in the need to spend significant time on the toilet.  Well, it looks like the holders of CMG going into the earnings report didn’t quite make it back to the toilet in time to avoid an accident!

I thought it would be useful to put up the longer-term charts, to show traders once again why I think you need to have the longer-term frame charts in sync with your intended trade if you expect to swing trade any stock nowadays.  Ignoring the bigger time can cause serious pain at times … Continue reading

HD Update – October 23, 2017 …

HD is acting pretty well today considering the tape is just kind of choppy.  The 15-min and 65-min chart resistance ATR’s have been broken today, so I decided to take a closer look to see if I should be looking to positionally or swing-trade HD here soon.  There next quarterly report is not due until Nov 21st, so maybe we are about to start a ramp into earnings, which often happen in large-cap market darlings.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Is Gold finished with its Corrective Pull-Back?

The Gold ETF (GLD) broke out of the downward broadening price pattern back in August.  That break, if accepted, would be an important inflection point for traders and signal a great swing trade opportunity for those paying attention.  I traded that break higher but have been out of the precious metal trades since September 8th when I noted on this blog site about the oncoming strength in the US$ (click here).

Here are the charts I am watching …

Gold ETF (GLD) – Weekly Chart

Gold ETF (GLD) – Daily Chart

The daily ATR resistance level was broken last Friday and this week you could argue that GLD has done exactly what I like to see price do when I am watching for the “acceptance” of that ATR break (i.e., a controlled price consolidation that holds above the new ATR support level and/or the prior price pivot low).

I am starting long swing positions in gold miners today, with the thought to build that position over the next couple of weeks.  My stop will be if/when GLD drops below the October 6th daily candle low of $119.78 on two consecutive 65-min candles or on a closing daily candle basis (whichever comes first) …

Cheers … Leaf_West

NFLX Update – October 2, 2017 …

NFLX reports their quarterly earnings after the close on October 16th.  After a huge July monthly move, the past two months have seen NFLX consolidate around the high of that large range monthly candle.  Which way will price go … I think that we should get some volatility in either direction regardless of which way it ends up going.  I would have to think that downside volatility could be a bit more vicious, due to the length of the upward run so far, but I remain open-minded.

You sometimes get the MoMo tech names to run higher into earnings, but maybe, NFLX will actually pullback into this next earnings report. Continue reading

FB Update – August 30, 2017

I updated my published outlook for FB yesterday mid-day, and the stock ended up moving higher and taking out the 30-min ATR resistance level I had an audio alert at.  I was looking to trade FB intra-day once again today, but I want to wait until price takes out the 195-min ATR resistance level before I try and take any stock overnight.

FB – 195 Minute Chart

Everything is looking good for FB bulls into month end … before I swing or positional trade FB, I want to see price break the 195-min ATR and then “accept” the break of that level.  Typically I like to see a multi-candle consolidation around that ATR level, but a controlled/shallow pullback is also fine in my books.

FB – 5 Minute Chart

You don’t have to hold a stock overnight to make money on it … all you need to do is look for a spot during the day when the odds of seeing follow through on the bigger trend is likely to work-out.  For me, I try and focus on my chart indicators and the bullish signals they make/confirm when they have a crossover … I circled the area in red where traders had better than average odds that a long trade was going to work out.

You can see what happened to the traders that were too anxious first thing … they were likely stopped out during the subsequent consolidation, after getting long on that early large bullish candle (2nd five-minute candle of the day).  Most times it pays to be patient and wait for an intraday consolidation set-up rather than buying the opening push/market orders.

FB finished the day with a bullish 15-min candle so I will be looking to trade FB intra-day once again tomorrow.

Cheers … Leaf_West


FB Update …

AAPL and FB have been the strongest tech stocks of late while many of the big winners of 2017 are acting weaker than the overall market.  AAPL triggered my entry level this morning and FB is testing the 30-min ATR audio alert that I have in place at $167.66.  I don’t really want to try and get long FB at these levels, as I would rather see the bigger time frame ATRs flip to the condition of support.  Overall though, FB looks like a stock that wants to head higher once the daily bull-flag pattern has run its course. Continue reading