Price is pushing for the third time in the last little while to break down below the broadening price pattern in TSLA … with the almost $1 billion convertible junk debt deal maturing this March with a conversion price around $360, I think the writing is on the wall for Elon …
One of the biggest things I don’t understand is all of the stories about how owners of new TSLA can’t get the final VIN’s from TSLA so they can register their car and get loans against them/get them officially registered. Some of the stories I have read imply a big ponzi scheme where Elon is taking advantage of secured lines of credit and the actual cash from the sale of the cars to try and keep things afloat. By delaying the release of the VINs Elon is able to ineffect get paid twice for the car – this only works for so long however, and I think the next 6 months will see TSLA collapse and end up only seeing the brand saved by a sale to an existing car manufacurer. What price will that happen at?
I wrote about a possible 2019 swing trade that I was looking at/starting on November 12th (click here to read that blog post). Long story shorter, I am playing for a big move higher in Gold Miner stocks in early-2019. I go through my thoughts in that earlier blog post, but one of the things that I was waiting for for additional confirmation was the completion of an ABC corrective move and a break of the downward sloping broadening price pattern.
I was buying GDX and HGU.TO in my stock accounts the past several days and yesterday I added WPM.TO on the flush after their somewhat disappointing earnings report. My audio alert went off this morning warning me of a first break higher out of the downward broadening price pattern. Here is the chart …
Gold Miner ETF (GDX) – 195 Minute Chart
A gap higher out of this type of broadening price pattern will almost always need to see some type of consolidation that would confirm acceptance by the market of that price move higher. I suspect that we spend at least 3-5 more days chopping around to see if price is really ready to begin moving higher. I am hoping that 2019 will actually work out nicely for gold/silver and the miners.
I wrote a blog post about the US$ yesterday morning (click here for that post). The price action in the DXY US$ Index today makes it look like a possible high was made yesterday to complete the B-wave I have drawn on my weekly chart … here is that chart from yesterday’s blog post.
US Trade Dollar Index – Weekly Chart (as posted on November 12, 2018)
Here is the price action from today …
US Trade Dollar Index – 240 Minute Chart
US Trade Dollar Index – 60 Minute Chart
The 240-min chart shows that the ATR support is still in place, and I like to see that taken out before I begin to think that any daily chart is turning lower … that ATR support is at $97.03 vs the current price of $97.16.
Could crude oil have made a pukefest low today right on the heels of the US$ making an important top?? Yesterday, I thought crude would find support around the lower support line of the broadening price pattern chart. Here is that chart updated for today’s pukefest …
Normally, the 3rd wave of a price structure will terminate around the 1.272x extension drawn off of the 2nd wave … if the third wave gets extended it would normally stop at the 1.618x extension target. Every once in a while, you get some real good capitulation like we did today probably in crude.
Anyways, the US$ top would be an important event for crude and other US$-based commodities.
TSLA has been my favorite stock for trading during 2018 … I have made several posts about TSLA’s set-ups and I am looking once again at zones where resistance can be expected, Here are the charts …
TSLA – Weekly Chart
The rising/broadening price pattern is still intact but the median line is likely to be formidable resistance here soon.
TSLA – Daily Chart
The Median Line resistance is around the $358 level.
TSLA – 195 Minute Chart
The 195-min chart is painting light blue candles warning me of an extreme move of price away from its slower moving averages. Note that volume is tapering off as we get higher and higher on this expansion move.
Be on guard if you are long TSLA as we push into the $350 – $360 levels.
AMZN is paying the price during this market correction for being so widely held and for having run so hard for so long. Where is support likely to re-appear? No one, knows and I think that will depend almost entirely on when the tech market gets a bid finally.
Here are the levels I am looking at …
AMZN – Weekly Chart
The weekly broadening price formation has seen price pullback to the upper support/resistance line. Will price find meaningful support here at around $1375?? Maybe …
AMZN – Daily Chart
On the daily chart, I can see what looks like a nice band of prior volume in the $1125 – $1200 zone … with that zone in mind, I decided to sell some OTM put options that expire before the next earnings date (April 26th). I sold some of the $1150 puts that are going to expire on April 20th.
AMZN – 195 Minute Chart
I continue to trade AMZN as my main focus intra-day, but I am not yet prepared to hold any long/short position overnight. Selling some OTM puts at that $1150 level is a much safer way of making a multi-day bet on what will happen to AMZN over the next couple of weeks.
I wrote two pieces about energy stocks and crude oil prices back on August 29th (click here) and on September 14th (click here). The call on crude oil and energy stocks were pretty good if I do say so myself. Both crude and energy stocks are at areas where I think they have found obvious levels of resistance.
Crude Oil Futures Contract – Daily Chart
Crude has made a beautiful 3-wave price structure out of a downward broadening price pattern. My software is painting dark blue extreme trend strength warning candles with pink divergence dots right as price has pushed into the 1.272x – 1.618x extension target zone for Wave 3. As good a spot for crude to begin a corrective pull-back price structure as any.
S&P Energy Index ETF (XLE) – Daily Chart
As I suggested back in late August, energy stocks made it all the way up into the median line of the upward sloping weekly broadening price pattern. Crude and energy stocks are going to crush a lot of dreams here over the next couple of weeks I would think.
When you look at the weekly chart for bonds, you have to think that maybe, just maybe, the great Central Bank manipulation to global interest rates is coming close to the beginning of the Great Unwind. Here are some weekly charts to ponder …
20-Plus Year US Bond ETF (TLT) – Weekly Chart
Price is still contained within the weekly downward broadening price pattern … we are in the middle of the 7th consecutive “contraction” warning signaled by my software painting the weekly candles yellow. What follows contraction? Typically it is a new expansion phase …
The Price Momentum indicator has shown that price has been in a squeeze for 16 consecutive weeks, which is pretty unreal, and almost all bond portfolio managers are likely fast asleep at the wheel and not prepared for what is going to happen next.
The Moving Average Spread Indicator is looking like it wants to make a second, lower cross-over, which typically is the sweet spot where the best shorts are made.
Where is support for price inside the weekly broadening pattern? It is around $106.50ish … which is about 14% lower than yesterday’s close.
What would a 14% drop in bonds mean for all those equity holders who are maxed out with their margin accounts?? Probably a little bit of pain!!