What’s Going on in Bonds?

Bonds have not been doing much at all in 2017 …

30-Yr US Treasury Yields – Weekly Chart

The high in yields came in about 3.20% and the low of the yearly range at about 2.60%.  We have spent the better part of the last 6-months in about a 20bps range – like watching paint dry.

30-Yr US Treasury Futures Contract – Weekly Chart

The weekly chart for the 30-yr futures contract has painted 6 yellow warning candles in-a-row here … things are getting unsustainable, and maybe we get some fireworks in bonds to coincide with a little pullback in equities in the new year?   Nah … not possible, right?  Didn’t think so.

20-Yr+ US Bond ETF (TLT) – Weekly Chart #1

The TLT is not quite as tightly wound as the futures contract, but it looks even more like it wants to break higher than even the futures contract does.

20-Yr+ US Bond ETF (TLT) – Weekly Chart #2

The downward broadening pattern for the weekly chart in the TLT shows us that a potential big trend reversal could be close at hand if the upper resistance line can get taken out … could that be one of the bigger trades for 2018 – a rally in bonds?  No one is expecting it, as everyone is betting the strengthening global economy will lead to lower bond prices.

If that is the case, why have bond yields been falling?  Must be that transient factors driving inflation measurements lower these past few months!!

Bottom Line – keep your eyes on bonds going forward here for the next couple of months.

Cheers … Leaf_West

TSLA Update – November 13, 2017 …

TSLA is making its product announcement on Nov 16th about its EV semi-truck.  They are likely to try and leverage that announcement into some type of an equity underwriting as the cash burn of the Model 3 is quite intense right now, and I think it is only going to get worse, so Elon would be smart to take advantage of any positive news to shove a bunch more equity down traders’ throats at these obscene price levels (>$300).

I continue to like TSLA to the short side, and I am looking to add a bearish trading position again over the next several days as price bounces into resistance …

TSLA – Weekly Chart

My bigger target in the medium term is that lower support level on the broadening price pattern at around $240.  Before that next leg lower, we need to find resistance a little higher up to suck in some more of Ron Barron’s money.

TSLA – Daily Chart

The median line at around $323 or the daily ATR resistance at about $330 should be the upper lid on any price bounce this week into that expected equity financing.

Cheers … Leaf_West

TSLA Update – October 25, 2017 …

I last updated TSLA on October 17th (click here) last week.  The firing of the weekly price squeeze looks like it is starting and as I thought, it looks like the squeeze is going to fire to the downside.  That would make it 4 in a row to the downside.  I continue to hold bearish option positions in TSLA.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

HD Update – October 23, 2017 …

HD is acting pretty well today considering the tape is just kind of choppy.  The 15-min and 65-min chart resistance ATR’s have been broken today, so I decided to take a closer look to see if I should be looking to positionally or swing-trade HD here soon.  There next quarterly report is not due until Nov 21st, so maybe we are about to start a ramp into earnings, which often happen in large-cap market darlings.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

AMZN Update – October 19, 2017 …

I wrote an update on AMZN yesterday that raised the possibility of the stock making a possible Wave 2 high of a new possible trend or at best a Wave 2 high of a large sideways consolidation pattern (click here).  The stock is about $13 below where it was when I wrote that blog post and it looks like it is possibly testing a break of the weekly broadening price pattern that I have been tracking for AMZN.

You might say … whoop-t-do, price is breaking some imaginary price pattern!!  I say beware when price breaks price patterns, because it could be the early warning of a change in trend.  Here are the charts … Continue reading

WFC Update – October 3, 2017 …

Here is the bigger broadening pattern that I have been tracking since late 2016 …

WFC – Weekly Chart

The broadening pattern seems to be giving traders good levels to trade against … I think that the median line will act as resistance here.

WFC – Daily Chart

The daily chart shows that price is extended here as we push into that weekly pattern’s median line.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Crude Oil Breaking out of the Broadening Price Pattern …

Crude oil futures are breaking out of their downward broadening price pattern …

Crude Futures – Daily Chart

A 3-wave price pattern is likely based on the recent wave structures …

Energy Producer ETF (XLE) – Weekly Chart

I was trying to get cute on my swing long and re-load on a pull-back and it looks like the next pull-back will be at a higher level. 🙁

Cheers … Leaf_West