Yesterday I took a look at the break to a new minor high in the tech-heavy QQQ ETF and mapped out three possible scenarios for price as we go forward. Earlier today I looked at both the SPY and IWM (small-cap stocks) ETFs … small caps are actually breaking out of their consolidation pattern and late on Monday, price on the 195-min chart flipped from yellow/contraction warning candles and signaled the beginning of a new trend expansion phase. The SPY chart is the index that I like to follow the closest to track what the “overall” market is doing, and it is lagging the QQQ and IWM – we are still below the prior minor pivot high, and we are still in a trend strength contraction zone. Here are the 195-min charts …
IWM – 195 Minute Chart
SPY – 195 Minute Chart
Bottom Line … small caps will be important to watch, but the SPY is the one that matters most I believe.
Cheers … Leaf_West
I’m not really looking for swing trades here in the current market, but I did look at my daily time frame bull flag scan results earlier today. The best looking bull flag identified to me was for CHRW the $12.7 billion transport company. Here is the bull-flag setting up on the daily chart …
CHRW – Daily Chart
You can see the nice little bull-flag set-up on the price chart … price is just underneath the 20SMA and its signal line so if price is going to break this flag pattern, it will also return to the bullish side of the moving averages.
The Relative Strength indicator on the right-side panel shows how well CHRW has held in during all of the selling in the market over the past week or so … impressive.
The last quarterly earnings report was released on January 30th and revenue was up 16.1% which was a nice little beat … earnings also beat expectations ($1.08 vs $0.84). If the global economy is indeed accelerating as well as most pundits are saying, transports including CHRW should have the wind at their backs for the next several quarters.
CHRW – Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows how price is still above the weekly ATR support level … the trend strength histogram is still in the extreme trend strength warning zone, and that is the only thing negative I can say about CHRW’s charts. Normally, an extended weekly chart would turn me away from getting long a stock based on a daily chart pattern, but the monthly chart is not extended so I think that any consolidation on the weekly chart could end up being shorter in duration than normal and indeed may be complete when this daily bull-flag pattern breaks to the upside.
CHRW – 195 Minute Chart
If the daily chart is going to break the bull-flag pattern higher, it will need to first break the 195-min ATR resistance level at $93.61 … I have an audio alert set there, and I will revisit this stock when/if that ATR level is taken out.
Cheers … Leaf_West
In my post dated January 2, 2018, I noted that AMZN was sitting right in a spot where traders should expect a positional move in the stock (click here to review that post). Here is the daily chart from that post … Continue reading
Today is the “triple witching” expiration date where index options and futures expire along with stock options. Once we get this behind us, institutional managers are free to ramp their favorite stocks into year-end.
One of the stocks that I own call options on into Dec 29th expiry is AAPL …
AAPL – 195 Minute Chart #1
To me it looks like the third wave of a 3-wave price structure is about to officially break the ATR resistance level and “signal” the beginning of the final push into year-end. $180 is my target … the market likes nice round numbers in part because of stock option strike prices.
AAPL – 195 Minute Chart #2
The Trend Strength histogram looks like it has completed the majority of its consolidation/pullback into the Chop Zone, and that should allow price to make its next push higher.
Price Momentum and the Moving Average Spread Indicators look like they are in a good position as well to get long AAPL into year-end.
Bottom Line – All that we need now is for Trump to not fuck up the last push into year-end!!
Cheers … Leaf_West
Constellation Brands (STZ) has broken last week’s inside candle to the upside and I am looking at putting on a small positional trade to see how far this move can take us. Maybe we only push higher into this week’s OpEx expiry or maybe we are seeing the resumption of a nice trend following the consolidation pattern put in after the great earnings beat on October 5th (+14% above estimates) that could end up lasting several weeks. Here are the charts … Continue reading
One of the best looking sectors heading into the start of Q4 this week is the biotech’s. Continue reading
I caught a nice little trade intra-day in AMZN during the last hour of the day today, and when I see the large cap momo names acting well into the close I will typically expect to see strength the following trading day … so I suspect the easier trades in AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, AAPL and FB will be to the upside tomorrow (AAPL maybe not because of the iPhone X launch).
Anyways, I thought it would be worthwhile to update my read of the AMZN charts … Continue reading