Road Map for the NASDQ 100 …

I have been mainly trading the NASDQ 100 futures during this corrective price action, and therefore, I like to keep a close eye on the price structure and timing windows.  Here is my current read …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

Unlike the S&P 500, the NADQ 100 Index made a bigger first wave lower.  I can count 3 minor waves lower into yesterday’s low, and therefore I think we have begun the B-wave bounce in the current corrective price structure.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2

Where will the NQ’s bounce to?  I think we are likely to make it back to the SLOT resistance zone and I have drawn the resistance level here at 7155 – that is my rough target currently.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If we turn lower at 7155, then the 1.272x extension target for Wave C will be around 6259.

Let’s look at deriving a timing window for Wave B and Wave C … we can do that by looking for prior turns in the waves completed so far.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #4

The first leg lower (small wave-a), the small wave-b corrective bounce ended right at the 1.382x timing window. and the small wave-c ended right near the 2.382x timing window.  Let’s draw the next wave to see where those windows ended up …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #5

Using the next bigger wave lower down (small wave-a) to draw our timing targets, the small wave-b corrective bounce ended right near that same 1.382x timing window we saw in the prior wave analysis. and the small wave-c ended right at the 1.786x timing window.

Using these previous windows,  let’s draw the big corrective wave pattern to see where our timing windows could end up …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #6

So, wave symmetry makes me think that the bigger wave-B timing window should be right around that 1.382x extension target … that puts the B-Wave high in right around the December 10th in the 6am – 10am time slot.

Wave-C’s time window is not quite as sure thing as the B-wave based on the prior c-waves coming in at 1.786x and 2.382x.  If we look at these time slots as a bigger window, we look for a bottom for Wave-C between Dec 30th and Jan 29th.  That is a big window, and since we know that Wave C’s typically complete in 3-wave patterns, we should be able to get a good sense of the completion window when we start getting closer to what looks like a completed 3-wave structure.  Bottom line is that we are likely to end this corrective pattern in early 2019.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Market Update …

Here is where I think we are on our way down to a bigger C-wave support for the S&P 500 and NASDQ 100 Indexes (both markets are forming a similar ABC corrective pattern) …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ) – 60 Minutes Chart #1

I think that we have completed the first leg of the final C-wave of the ABC corrective price structure.  It looks like we completed a smaller 3-wave lower in the A-purple wave count in that bigger red-C wave.  Now we should be looking for a bounce into resistance which should have a minor abc-wave count.  Then we should have a final flush down into the bigger C-wave support.  That last leg down typically carves out a minor 3-wave structure – it is also typically ruthless and moves very quickly.

Where could the bounce to B terminate?

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ) – 60 Minutes Chart #2

It looks like we completed the purple A-wave with today’s price action … that lines up with my wave count of AAPL as well, so I think odds are we bounce from here until next week.  A nice timing window exists at 1pm-2pm on Monday, November 19th.  The last move down should be fun, and get everyone bearish into year-end, just when they should be looking to trade long out of bigger support.

Cheers … Leaf_West