Road Map for the NASDQ 100 – December 3, 2018 …

I updated the roadmap for the S&P 500 Index/futures this morning and here now is my map for the NASDQ 100 futures …

My last update was on November 21st (click here for that post).  Here is the roadmap and time window from that posting.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #6 (November 21st)

If you read that earlier post, you will note that the three prior smaller corrective bounces in this move lower all came in at the 1.382x time window.  That prior symmetry is why I think the 1.382x window will work again this time.  That implies that the timing window for the bigger B wave corrective bounce is for early in the morning of December 10th. Note from this morning’s post that the timing window for the ES futures contract is tomorrow morning, so having the Q’s hang around until next Monday would imply lots of chop for the next several days.

The more important item to keep track of is the actual bounce and where resistance is found … here is the current chart for the Q’s.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

You can see that the prior corrective bounces in terms of resistance, failed right in the low 50%’s … so I am looking for both symmetry in the time window (1.382x) and price (around low 50%’s).  I have noted a possible sooner timing window on the chart above because of how the S&P 500 chart looks to be finding a sooner timing top (tomorrow morning).  Timing windows are usually pretty close for the S&P and NASDQ 100 so I have to keep aware of that fact.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2

 

So we are close in terms of price of where I expect resistance to hold for the Q’s … now we just have to confirm a move lower before really being convinced that my wave count is right.

If my wave count is correct, then I am looking for final C-wave support around the 6100 level and for that support window to come in around the end of the year/beginning of 2019.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If I look at the bigger broadening price pattern, I see a possiblity of price going all the way down to the lower support line.  That seems like a long way to go, but I am keeping an open mind, if in fact we do head lower to a bigger C-wave support target.

Cheers … Leaf_West

 

 

S&P 500 Road Map – December 3, 2018 …

Let there be light …. the Donald seems to have delivered once again with China, and the market is gapping higher coming out of this weekend’s dinner date with the Chinese President.  Time to take a look at the markets to see where we are versus our road map …

Here is a wave count chart for the S&P 500 Index from my November 21st posting (click here for that post).

S&P 500 Index – 195 Minute Chart #2 (November 21st)

You can see from the above chart that I am expecting the market to find resistance right above the a-pivot high (2815.15)  Since the market has not opened and therefore, the S&P Index does not yet show us the indicated move, I will use the ES mini futures contract as a substitute for the S&P 500 cash index.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

The a-wave pivot high is 2818.00 on the ES futures contract … the high so far overnight is 2814.00.  I am showing my timing windows on the above chart as well.

You can see that the minor-a wave high (purple) for bigger B (red) came right in at the 1.382x timing window … the minor-b wave low (purple) for bigger B (red) came in right at the 2.0x timing window.  It appears that we are pushing right into my expected resistance level for the end of bigger wave-B (red) here at the 2.382x extension window which is scheduled for tomorrow in the overnight trading session (2am – 6am).

So the proof in the pudding will be shown the next couple of days … let’s look at the wave structure of the last move here into what I think will be resistance.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2

You can see from the above chart that the minor-c-wave into the B-wave high is making what looks like a normal 3-wave pattern.  It looks like we are near the end of the minor 3rd wave which will also mean that the B-wave is complete.

S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If we do find resistance and start to move lower, I think that would be proof that we are going down to complete the bigger ABC structure.  My minimum C-wave target is the 1.272x extension target which is around 2510 on the ES futures contract.

Bottom Line – most traders will be thinking that this move of the last week or so is the start of the Xmas rally and that we are headed higher to make new all-time highs.  I obviously don’t believe that we are ready to do that, and we are, in fact, about to start the biggest, most viscous part of a corrective wave (the c-leg).  I want to watch closely here over the next day or so to get confirmation that the B-wave is indeed complete and we are beginning the next leg lower.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Road Map for the NASDQ 100 …

I have been mainly trading the NASDQ 100 futures during this corrective price action, and therefore, I like to keep a close eye on the price structure and timing windows.  Here is my current read …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #1

Unlike the S&P 500, the NADQ 100 Index made a bigger first wave lower.  I can count 3 minor waves lower into yesterday’s low, and therefore I think we have begun the B-wave bounce in the current corrective price structure.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #2

Where will the NQ’s bounce to?  I think we are likely to make it back to the SLOT resistance zone and I have drawn the resistance level here at 7155 – that is my rough target currently.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #3

If we turn lower at 7155, then the 1.272x extension target for Wave C will be around 6259.

Let’s look at deriving a timing window for Wave B and Wave C … we can do that by looking for prior turns in the waves completed so far.

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #4

The first leg lower (small wave-a), the small wave-b corrective bounce ended right at the 1.382x timing window. and the small wave-c ended right near the 2.382x timing window.  Let’s draw the next wave to see where those windows ended up …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #5

Using the next bigger wave lower down (small wave-a) to draw our timing targets, the small wave-b corrective bounce ended right near that same 1.382x timing window we saw in the prior wave analysis. and the small wave-c ended right at the 1.786x timing window.

Using these previous windows,  let’s draw the big corrective wave pattern to see where our timing windows could end up …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ_F) – 240 Minute Chart #6

So, wave symmetry makes me think that the bigger wave-B timing window should be right around that 1.382x extension target … that puts the B-Wave high in right around the December 10th in the 6am – 10am time slot.

Wave-C’s time window is not quite as sure thing as the B-wave based on the prior c-waves coming in at 1.786x and 2.382x.  If we look at these time slots as a bigger window, we look for a bottom for Wave-C between Dec 30th and Jan 29th.  That is a big window, and since we know that Wave C’s typically complete in 3-wave patterns, we should be able to get a good sense of the completion window when we start getting closer to what looks like a completed 3-wave structure.  Bottom line is that we are likely to end this corrective pattern in early 2019.

Cheers … Leaf_West

So Far So Good …

The bigger ABC corrective pattern in the S&P 500 and the NASDQ 100 Indexes are playing out pretty much as I discussed in my earlier blog posts.  I think we found minor support in the NASDQ 100 futures this afternoon and we should bounce higher for the next day and a bit …

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract – 60 Minute Chart

How does the timing look going forward?

NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract – 120 Minute Chart

The next minor resistance should be found at about 7050 – 7060 in the 8am-10am time window on Wednesday.  The next push down should then go to about 6715 at around the 2am-4am next Monday morning.

Then the bounce from there should push to about 6980 in the 12am – 2am window on Nov 23rd … that is on a Friday so the high could be at the end of the day Friday or in the evening hours when futures reopen on the 25th.

The final support low should be around 6270 and be made around the 2am-4am window on Nov 30th … looks like a good old-fashioned puke fest into month end.

December should be a good month to the upside …

Cheers … Leaf_West