Price is getting close to a potential turning point …
NASDQ 100 Index Futures – 60 Minute Chart #1
Sometimes trying to guess too early the shape of a corrective wave can cause you to draw the right conclusion. Typically I like to see a break of the 60-min (or 65-min if using TC2000) ATR levels before I begin to try and count waves to see if a wave price structure can be determined.
The 60-min ATR support for the NQ was broken today so I am now updating what I think the wave count is most likely for this bounce into SLOT resistance.
As you can see, price is just above the 1.272x C-wave extension target and below the upper level of the SLOT (i.e., the 78.6% level). Note that this is also very near to the median resistance/support line of the broadening price pattern I have been following for the NQ futures contract.
From a time perspective, the C-wave will be equal to 100% of the A-wave on the 3pm-4pm candle today (January 10th) … so to me timing and price finding resistance in the SLOT here makes sense.
Now all I really need is to see if I can see an obvious conclusion to a smaller wave structure (i.e., the waves inside of the final C-wave move higher).
NASDQ 100 Index Futures – 60 Minute Chart #2
To me it looks like we could be making the typically expected 3-minor wave C-wave … the high of my 2nd wave is 6645.00 – the high so far today is 6628.25.
One thing to keep aware of is that waves in smaller time frames often fail to complete, in part, because of the stronger forces of the bigger time frame price structure. What I am saying is that if price fails to make a new minor 3rd high for the C-wave, it is still possible that the move higher was actually completed today with that failed iii-wave.
Bottom Line … maybe the bad retailer announcements today along with American Airlines taking down estimates are enough to cause price to fail in the last little leg higher. Be prepared for anything.
I have not seen anything to make me think that my bigger wave count is incorrect, so I am still looking for resistance to take hold.
Cheers … Leaf_West