Overhead Supply / Resistance Areas …

Tonight’s AAPL earnings report is pretty key for the market … if the outlook is disappointing, then all bets are off about what could happen in the market the next several days.  I still think that the market is set-up to bounce higher into the SLOT resistance zones and therefore I want to do my work and be prepared for that next move into the final resistance levels.  Here are some looks at the volume profiles for the two key futures contracts that I trade.

NASDQ 100 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #1

When looking for a possible resistance level for the NQ futures on this bounce higher, it makes sense to look back at the first leg lower and see where it bounced to.  When you look at the volume profile for that first minor-a wave, you can see that the price peaked right in the area where I would have expected it to find resistance (i.e., right in the first band around the Point of Control (7405).  The band I look to is the 3 price zones around the POC … those were 7352-7454.  The high price for the bounce was 7368.50.

NASDQ 100 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #2

The minor-c wave lower produces a volume profile with a POC at 7156, which is right at the 50% lower level of the SLOT resistance zone.  The band of resistance most likely to come into play is from 7108 – 7203.

NASDQ 100 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #3

Finally, I like to look at the entire wave down into the bigger A-wave support … that POC is 7133, with a band expected at 7060 – 7203.

S&P 500 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #1

The first move lower in the ES futures contract saw a waterfall collapse, so the POC was not really relevant when it came to trying to find a resistance level inside or around the SLOT resistance zone … that happens, but it doesn’t really help us when looking for symmetry in the next bounce higher into resistance.

S&P 500 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #2

The minor-C wave has a POC of 2773 and a band of overhead supply at 2760 – 2787.  as you can see, those levels are right near the 50% retracement level for the entire move lower so far.

S&P 500 Futures Contract – 240 Minute Chart #3

The entire bigger-A wave lower has a POC of 2766 and a band of overhead supply at 2746 – 2788.  as you can see, those levels are also right near the 50% retracement level for the entire move lower so far.

The bottom line for the ES contract is that price is going to have to do some chopping to get above that 2750 – 2790 range.

NASDQ 100 Index ETF (QQQ) – 65 Minute Chart

For traders who don’t trade or follow the futures contracts, the QQQ ETF has a POC of $173.26 and a resistance band of about $171.54 – $174.94.

S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) – 65 Minute Chart

The SPY ETF has a POC of $173.26 and a resistance band of about $171.54 – $174.94.

Bottom Line … If I am right about a bigger corrective pattern off of the recent highs, then this current bounce will find resistance in the SLOT at levels around the POC’s.  Best of luck traders …

Cheers …Leaf_West

 

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