I have been waiting for the right time to begin shorting TSLA again, and today is the day where I decided to begin. Here is how TSLA’s weekly chart looks to me …
TSLA Weekly Chart #1
The weekly chart has been in a position of ATR resistance for quite a while now … while that has been the condition, relative strength vs the SPY has made a nice looking bear flag or pendant/wedge pattern, and money flow continues to leave TSLA. I think this week has a nice chance to be a pivot candle for price to begin heading lower in earnest. The early February weekly candle was the warning shot and I was waiting for a failure bounce to the upside to begin a put position and begin getting more active at shorting the stock outright (especially intra-day).
Price has hugged the median line from the broadening price pattern and to me it looks like we could be about to break lower and head down to the lower support line as a first real support level.
TSLA Weekly Chart #2
So price made a nice bounce right into the SLOT resistance zone and now it is likely, in my eyes, to begin the next leg lower. Will that be the “C” wave of an ABC correction pattern, or will it be the next major leg in the death knell of TSLA, i.e., the 2nd wave of a bigger 3-wave pattern. If it is just a ABC, then price will likely find support around $265 … if it is a bigger move lower, then $230ish is the likely bigger support level.
TSLA 195-Minute Chart
We didn’t go on to make a new higher high before we look like we made a second break of ATR support … this is the “double-crossover” I like to see when trying to catch inflection points. The 195-min candle closed a couple of minutes ago and it is still holding on … the next candle closes at today’s cash market close (4pm – $336.10).
TSLA 65-Minute Chart
Nothing in my following of TSLA’s fundamentals makes me think that we are going to see a great 2018 operationally, so this could very well be a pivotal year for TSLA’s stock price.
Cheers … Leaf_West