The Fed has folded and therefore I think my bigger thesis for 2019 (weaker US$ and higher gold prices) has a good shot at being pretty bang on.
Trade-Weighted US$ – Weekly Chart
The Fed doesn’t see any inflation, but if the US$ loses 6%+ inflation is sure to be more of a story later in 2019.
Trade-Weighted US$ – Daily Chart
It looks like the bounce into resistance is complete and that the US$ will restart its move lower here now that the Fed has cowed to equity bulltards.
Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Weekly Chart
Gold and gold miners are headed higher, I believe, in 2019. Is the move an ABC or a 3-wave structure? It doesn’t
Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Daily Chart #1
The mover higher out of the September 2018 low looks like it made a perfect end to the 2nd wave with today’s price action – we stabbed the 1.618x extension target perfectly with the end to what looks like a quick emotional move higher.
So if that was the end or the beginning of the end to wave-2, then traders should be looking for a pullback into SLOT support around the $19.90 – $20.40 levels. Then we push higher to make an end to the first move for our journey higher.
Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Daily Chart #2
The TC2000 chart for GDX shows the extreme DI+ reading with today’s push.
Bottom Line – Nothing that I have seen so far in 2019 makes believe that GLD and GDX/NUGT are not going to be good swing trades. Monitoring the wave structure should allow traders opportunities to increase/decrease weightings as we go forward. Don’t get too cute, and make sure you maintain a healthy core weighting.
Cheers – Leaf_West