US$ Update – January 30, 2019 …

The Fed has folded and therefore I think my bigger thesis for 2019 (weaker US$ and higher gold prices) has a good shot at being pretty bang on.

Trade-Weighted US$ – Weekly Chart

The Fed doesn’t see any inflation, but if the US$ loses 6%+ inflation is sure to be more of a story later in 2019.

Trade-Weighted US$ – Daily Chart

It looks like the bounce into resistance is complete and that the US$ will restart its move lower here now that the Fed has cowed to equity bulltards.

Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Weekly Chart

Gold and gold miners are headed higher, I believe, in 2019. Is the move an ABC or a 3-wave structure? It doesn’t matter as both target levels are much higher than the current price.

Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Daily Chart #1

The mover higher out of the September 2018 low looks like it made a perfect end to the 2nd wave with today’s price action – we stabbed the 1.618x extension target perfectly with the end to what looks like a quick emotional move higher.

So if that was the end or the beginning of the end to wave-2, then traders should be looking for a pullback into SLOT support around the $19.90 – $20.40 levels. Then we push higher to make an end to the first move for our journey higher.

Gold Miner EFT (GDX) – Daily Chart #2

The TC2000 chart for GDX shows the extreme DI+ reading with today’s push.

Bottom Line – Nothing that I have seen so far in 2019 makes believe that GLD and GDX/NUGT are not going to be good swing trades. Monitoring the wave structure should allow traders opportunities to increase/decrease weightings as we go forward. Don’t get too cute, and make sure you maintain a healthy core weighting.

Cheers – Leaf_West

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