OK … I just went through the 3 major indexes and made sure I had all of my charts in order – that includes extension targets and time extension targets. My read of the charts is that we are at levels that make believe that we are making support here in the markets. There is one question I have still about the ES/S&P 500 but with the other two main indexes more clear and obvious, I think I have to give some thought that the ES may also be at a major level of support.
I’m going to try and keep bias out and just analyze the charts and see how much evidence I have about being in possible support. I’ll start with the NASDQ 100 Index …
NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ) – 240 Minute Chart #1
For the NQ, the first thing that jumps out at me is that we hit the minor-C (blue circle) wave time target which is 1.618x the time length of blue-A wave here today. The candle made today in that time slot was a large emotional one and it is a dark blue candle which my software does when trend strength has entered into the “extreme warning zone”.
How about price levels … We slightly exceeded for the bigger C-wave (red circle) the normal 1.272x target level that ABC patterns typically terminate at. That’s ok because it is an approximate target anyways, and when I look at the price extension target for the smaller c-wave (blue circle) we again finished right near the expected level as well.
The smaller c-wave (green) of the last move into support has formed 3 waves which I like to see as well.
Overall, I think with time and price hitting it so close here today, I am confident that the NASDQ has probably made a tradeable low today.
NASDQ 100 Index Futures Contract (NQ) – 240 Minute Chart #2
The above chart gives you a closer look at the last wave …
Russell 2000 Index Futures Contract (RUT) – 240 Minute Chart #1
The Russell 2000 to me looks like it is just completing the 2nd of a 3-wave structure. I say that because we are closer to the 1.618x target that 3-wave structures hit with their 2nd wave than we are to the 1.272x target that you see with ABC’s.
Also, this latest move lower is an “extended” wave structure, and by that I mean that it exceeded the 1.618x target and extended down to the more emotional 2.272x target level. That emotion makes me think that we are just finishing wave 2 of 3. While not exactly at the bigger 1.618x target level, the timing window was only off slightly, having predicted a low made in the overnight session last night – it makes sense that all of the markets bottom relatively close together during the regular cash sessions.
Russell 2000 Index Futures Contract (RUT) – 240 Minute Chart #2
So even though the NASDQ 100 looks to have completed an ABC, I still think it will fail in resistance and make the next leg lower in its corrective pattern … that move lower will coincide with the RUT’s move down into wave 3 support.
S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES) – 240 Minute Chart #1
Ok, the S&P 500 Index is the one where I have less confidence that we bottomed in all the indexes today … let me explain.
If the ES completed an ABC corrective pattern to complete the first leg lower in this corrective pattern from October’s
So I’m a little concerned that we overshot the 1.272x target, but if all of the other evidence tells me we completed into support then I am ok. The problem here is that it doesn’t all line up as well as it does for the NQ and the RUT.
Notice the time target … the 1.272x target is for Dec 23rd between 6pm and 10pm (that is the overnight session this coming Sunday). The RUT and the NQ hit their 1.618x time targets so well, I would have preferred that the ES did as well. The 1.618x time target window is not until Dec 27th during the 6pm-10pm window.
Also, the wave structure in this last leg down (blue circle) is hitting the 1.618x level which tells me that this leg is likely a 2nd wave of a 3-wave structure i.e., the move lower is not complete. Let’s look closer so I can better explain …
S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES) – 240 Minute Chart #2
I have drawn a 3-wave completion down to the bigger 1.618x target which would make the ES a 3-wave structure like the RUT. The bounce from support would find resistance along with the other indexes and then fall lower to complete the 3rd wave.
S&P 500 Index Futures Contract (ES) – 240 Minute Chart #3
So I think that it is very possible that the ES will need to complete its move into support early next week, which will be complicated by the Christmas holiday. Nonetheless, it fits better timing and price wise if I consider it a 3-wave structure that is yet to complete.
Bottom Line – The NQ and RUT are in support. The ES may be very close but not quite – I am hesitant to hold out on the ES because the other two are ready. If the RUT and NQ start to make moves out of support, I will assume that the ES/S&P 500 pattern “failed” to complete, which on its own is very bullish, and could lead to a big move higher very quickly.
Cheers … Leaf_West